Cost Risk Analysis for Excel
Quantik.
P50 and P90 you can defend.
Monte Carlo cost-risk analysis (QRA) inside Excel. Range your estimate, price your risk register, run the simulation and issue the contingency, with the correlation test, precision and run log that Australian funding reviewers ask for.
Validated against real QRAs
Before Quantik replaced anything, it had to reproduce the numbers already issued to clients.
Key Features
Everything a funding QRA needs, in the workbook you already have. Quantik drives Excel's own recalculation, so any formula in your estimate works.
Three-point ranges, your way
PERT, Trigen, triangular, P10/P90 PERT and more. One switch moves a whole model between min/max and P10/P90 readings.
A risk register priced like a BOQ
Probability × cost risk events, before and after controls, with allocation, owners, review dates and a 5 × 5 matrix.
Correlation that widens the spread
Rank correlation within groups (Iman–Conover) plus a factor model between groups, with the achieved correlation reported every run.
Risk drivers
Shared multipliers on the sections they affect, the risk-factor method DITRDCA's GN3A prefers. Drivers rank in the tornado like any other input.
Cost and schedule together
Time-related costs scale with the simulated duration; SYN.JCL gives joint cost and schedule confidence.
Precision you can state
"P90 ± $X (95%)" on every result, and auto-stop when P90 is known to within a share of the contingency.
The GN3A correlation test
One click runs the model at ρ = 0, as set, and ρ = 1 on the same random numbers, and shows where your P90 sits in the gap.
Scenarios on common random numbers
Each input keeps its own random stream, so a what-if shows the change itself, not sampling noise.
Contingency and reports
A one-page contingency sheet, a three-page A4 client report exported to PDF, and a revision bridge of what moved P90.
See Quantik in action
One tab on the Excel ribbon: Model, Simulation, Analysis and Reports, left to right in the order you work.
Documentation
Quantik User Guide
How the simulation works, the risk-modelling method behind it, a section-by-section guide to every button and SYN.* function, and worked examples with real numbers.
SYN.* function and the @RISK set.
06Trial and licensing30-day trial, then an offline licence key.
Who it's for
Cost estimators
Turn a priced BOQ into a ranged model without leaving Excel.
Guide 03 → 04 → 06 → 07
Risk and QRA leads
Correlation, risk drivers, schedule-linked costs and precision, with every assumption on the sheet.
Risk modelling → Examples → Guide 09
Project owners and funding submissions
P50/P90 outturn and summaries set up the way the Commonwealth, Queensland, NSW and Victoria ask.
Examples: authority templates
Reviewers
Open the workbook, read the run log, re-run on the stated seed and get the same answer.
How it works 07 → Guide 08
@RISK users
Existing RiskPert, RiskPertAlt and RiskOutput workbooks simulate as they are.
Guide 12 → Function reference
What's in 0.8.1
Designed around DITRDCA GN3A, TMR PCEM and AACE practice.
| Feature | What it gives you |
|---|---|
| Risk drivers | SYN.DRIVER, a Risk Drivers sheet (drivers × BOQ sections) and a method switch: line-item ranging, risk drivers or hybrid. |
| Schedule and joint confidence | A Schedule sheet, time-related costs that follow the simulated duration, duration P50/P90 and SYN.JCL. |
| Precision | Sampling in Latin Hypercube blocks of 1,000, 95% intervals on P50 and P90, auto-stop on precision, SYN.PRECISION. |
| Correlation | Between-group correlation (default 0.3), achieved rank correlation reported, and the one-click GN3A correlation test. |
| Common random numbers | Random numbers follow each input's identity, so adding or switching off one risk leaves every other input's samples unchanged. |
| LPHC screening | Low-probability, high-consequence risks flagged on the register and optionally held outside contingency; minor risks screened. |
| Scenarios | Named what-ifs run on the same seed and random numbers, with a comparison table and S-curves. |
| Fit Distribution | Fit Normal, Lognormal, Uniform, Triangular and PERT to past rates or actual ÷ estimate ratios, ranked by AIC with KS and AD checks, and paste the formula. |
| Correlation matrices | RiskCorrmat and SYN.CORRMAT: a different correlation for each pair, entered as a matrix (one triangle is enough), applied exactly. |
| Stress Test | The output's P50 and P90 when each input lands in its best or worst 10% (events: occurs or not), ranked and charted from the last run, with no re-run. |
| Input Pack | Every input with its distribution, arguments, correlation and sampled percentiles, plus seed, settings and fingerprints, as a sheet and a CSV for reviewers. |
| Run log | Every reported run with user, settings hash and input fingerprint, so a reviewer can confirm the model and re-run it. |
| Authority templates | Commonwealth DITRDCA (GN3A), Queensland TMR (PCEM), NSW INSW (CCF) and Victoria DTF (RTCC) summary sheets. |
| Licensing | 30-day trial, then signed licence keys that are checked offline. Nothing is sent anywhere. |
Try it free for 30 days
No sign-up and no licence key needed for the trial: install Quantik and the 30 days start the first time it runs.
Trial
Free, 30 days
- Every feature
- Example workbooks and authority templates
- Reports marked "evaluation only"
Named User
Price TBC
- One person, annual subscription
- Inclusions TBC
Team
Price TBC
- A set number of seats
- Inclusions TBC
Site
Price TBC
- One key deployed by IT for every user
- Inclusions TBC
When you buy, you receive a licence key to paste in or open as a .qlic file.
Download: download link and version to be added. Requires Windows with 64-bit Microsoft 365 or Excel 2016 or later, and the .NET 10 Desktop Runtime (x64). See installing Quantik.
Questions, quotes or a walkthrough: hello@synthetik.au confirm contact